top of page
Writer's pictureThomas Stewart

Predicting the top SC Midfielders: Part 1





As we rapidly approach the beginning of round 1 in the Supercoach AFL season, I wanted to follow up with a midfield ranking after writing about the top defenders. This piece will be spread into two parts, as I believe there are many solid midfield options to discuss and rank before heading into the upcoming SC season.


Throughout this list, I have aimed to balance what I believe to be plausible within the individual players scoring power and upside, as well as taking into account how their off-season will impact these other factors.




1. Marcus Bontempelli $724k

The Western Bulldogs captain eclipsed all opposition last season to reign supreme as the no.1 Supercoach commodity. With an average 9.1 points better than the next best midfielder, Bontempelli easily achieved M1 status. He achieved these feats in arguably his prime year at the age of 27, which could mean a steady slide. But he is still just 28 and hasn't breached the 30 year old mark, which could further afford him more strong seasons. In 2023, the Bont averaged 81% CBA's and led the line in the Dogs midfield, which largely came from Jack Macrae and Bailey Smith's roles being altered. This seemed poised to change as Smith and Macrae joined the Dogs midfield group during this pre-season, only for the two of them to have injury strike. During this time, Bontempelli was seen more up forward, catching the eye of fans and causing plenty of discussion. But with both of these injuries coming to light, Bontempelli would be expected to move back to his primary midfield position. So while Bontempelli should struggle to reach the same heights of 2023, I still hold enough confidence that he will be at the top of the tree in 2024.



2. Christian Petracca $667k

The 2021 Norm Smith medallist amassed a super season while Oliver was out, collecting the 2nd most points for any midfielder. This included his career best average of 119.5 SC, which only followed both Oliver (injury interrupted) and Bontempelli's season averages. Petracca was also 27 last year and now moves into 2024 at the age of 28. This could also be a sign of very slight decline, but I still see him being around the mark at only 28 years of age. Petracca averaged 61% CBA's during 2023, while also starting in the forward line for multiple matches, which is a remarkable stat considering he posted such incredible numbers. This could also be a possible sign of upside if his mid time grows, but with Oliver returning, the Dees may opt to keep it that way. While I believe Oliver's return and other possible structure changes at Melbourne could harm Petracca, I think the stats still show his scoring capabilities in other positions are enough to keep him at the summit of 2024 midfielders.



3. Tom Green $621k

The Green machine met early expectations last year and boosted his average by 14.1 points, resulting in a season average of 111.2 SC. As the Giants improved, Green went alongside them, as he compiled seven 120+ scores with an average of 84% CBA's as he became the Giants' new main man in the middle. Unfortunately, Green missed four games due to suspension and injury in 2023, which could have easily seen him improve upon both his average and 120+ score tally. But as he returned in round 21, he posted scores of 126, 129, 119, and 145, amassing a four-round-average of 129.75 SC. The 145 score also came against one of the toughest midfields in the Carlton Blues. While these numbers are encouraging, Green would still need to emulate them for a complete season to become M1 level, but I will not put it past him to at least push that barrier in 2024.




4. Jordan Dawson $647k

Jordan Dawson flourished in his first season as Crows captain, averaging 115.9 SC. This came as Adelaide pushed for a return to finals, which they fell short of, but Dawson saw the benefits and improved 6.4 points on his 2022 average. With the captaincy reigns came more responsibility, which Dawson grasped with both hands, as he joined the Crows midfield in a more prominent role. As he joined the midfield, his CBA numbers grew from 2% (2022) to 70% (2023), which greatly improved his scoring output and average. There is reason to believe that Dawson could still show improvement with this extra preseason under his belt, considering he is becoming a specialist midfielder. In 2023 Dawson had to endure multiple tags due to his damaging kicking, but this didn't have a massive impact on him, as he had only three scores under 90 SC for the season. While Dawson is the most likely to experience a tag in the Crows midfield, I still see upside on his average as he has now gained another preseason as a midfielder, not to mention that he is just 26 years old.




5. Zak Butters $636k

Butters assembled an astounding 2023 AFL and Supercoach season, as he contended for the Brownlow during the middle and late stages of the year, as well as bolstering his average to 113.8 SC. During those stages of 2023, Butters began to see more mid time than the previous year, with 38% CBA's in 2022 and 62% CBA's in 2023. From round 20 to the finals series, Butters had an average of 73.8% CBA's, which resulted in a seven-round-average of 125 SC to end the year. This shows that while Butters' CBA numbers can be slightly low, they are still continuing to increase and produce greater scores. He has also been entrusted with the vice captaincy, which illustrates the responsibility he holds at Port Adelaide. While I think it should be tough for a below average CBA mid to contend with those at the summit, Butters would be my choice to accomplish that.




6. Luke Davies-Uniacke $635k

LDU enters into the top 6 of my list, as I see the Roos gun having the capabilities to reach the peak of Supercoach midfielders. With a career best average of 113.6 SC in 2023, North's main man is illustrating a promising upward trajectory. Injuries are the main dampener that have kept him from the top 8 midfielders in the past, as he only managed 14 games in 2023 and has never played a full season to date. In those 14 games last year, he amassed eight 120+ scores, which shows he often gives his opponents a brutal lesson. Davies-Uniacke also leads North's engine room for CBA's, with an average of 81% across last season, illustrating how important he is to their success. If LDU can finally manage a full season in 2024, I think the sky's the limit for what he can produce, especially with North's improving young brigade aiming to shoot up the ladder.




7. Rory Laird $653k

Laird had a down season last year compared to his 2022 best, where he averaged 127.9 SC. If not for an unexpected 50 SC against the Giants in round 1, Laird averaged 120.04 SC for the remainder of the 2023 season. His CBA numbers remained strong in an improving Crows side, as he averaged 79% for the season. Interestingly, his average CBA's increased to 83.8% as Matt Crouch returned to Adelaide's best 22, as well as producing a five-round-average of 119.4 SC with a score of 93 in those last five rounds. Laird also turned 30 over the break, making him vulnerable to possible regression on his past averages. Despite this, Laird has dropped $50k on his 2023 starting price, making him value for a player that held the best average of anybody in 2022. If you also take into account Adelaide's goal of September this season, Laird would need to play a large part in that effort, making it a big year for him and his Supercoach promise.



Lineball have also recently launched an open league for all viewers/readers, the code is 978256 and it would be much appreciated if as many new players as possible could jump in and join the Lineball community.


Sorry for taking a while to post, I have been away recently, but I thank everyone again for reading and best of luck heading into the 2024 SC season.





36 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page