As each player is put under a microscope during pre-season, I thought it would be best to do my own analysis of each top defender and how they could perform in the upcoming 2024 SuperCoach season.
1. Nick Daicos (Pred Avg. 120)
Nick Daicos as D1 already seems achievable regardless of him only playing two seasons of AFL football. With his rise to becoming Collingwood's leading average possession getter last season, Premiership player and Rising star, Daicos is still yet to enter the traditional "3rd year breakout" season. If you also add his injury hampered end to the season, there is enough upside to believe he can reach the heights of a 120 SC average and battle it out with the top scoring players across every line.
2. James Sicily (Pred Avg. 115)
The Hawks main man in defence returns to lead a bolstered and hyped up Hawthorn team, which as a club has been tipped to rise up the ladder this season. I expect Sicily to see the benefits as his partnership with James Blanck and Sam Frost matures, as he will hold less lockdown responsibility as time goes on, opening him up to further chances to intercept. The Hawks captain also missed four matches due to suspension, which if he played all season, he probably would have made it to a 115 SC average.
3. Tom Stewart (Pred Avg. 110-115)
The Cats vice captain is another that always seems to feature in the strongest defence each SuperCoach year. Stewart is coming off his strongest season as a SuperCoach prospect, averaging 113.7 from 22 rounds, beating his previous high of 109.7 in 2022. While each season he has shown steady improvement on his average, he has only managed one full season, which came in 2019. Accompanying this is his age, now becoming 30 going into 2024, which is typically a sign of a regressing average. Stewart has also hinted at playing more in the midfield, noting this pre-Christmas, which could provide further upside on his average. Overall I believe there is slight doubt on Stewart compared to my previous two, but he still should be thereabouts in the best defence of 2024.
4. Jack Sinclair (Pred Avg. 110-115)
The 5th highest disposal-getter of the entire AFL in 2023, Jack Sinclair was dominant in a new Ross Lyon Saints team. Partnered with Wanganeen-Milera across half-back, Sinclair rebounded and became a focal point in St Kilda's ball movement and attack. While also sharing kick-ins, he averaged 106.7 SC for the year, which is only second to his 2022 average of 113.7 SC. Sinclair has shown he can still score alongside Wanganeen-Milera, posting strong late season averages (three round avg: 122.7, five round avg:116). His main hindrance is when he plays substantial midfield time, with scores of 105, 99, 71, 133, 96 and 67 in season 2023. But with the arrivals of Liam Henry, Paddy Dow and rookie Darcy Wilson, the Saints have added in more midfield and wing options. This should strengthen the Saints squad and ideally allow for Sinclair to play consistently across half-back.
5. Jordan Ridley (Pred Avg. 105-110)
This man has drawn countless coaches towards him over recent years, with mostly unfortunate results, although this year shapes as Ridley's best chance at a personal best average. The intercept defender always suited a third tall type role in which he could freely take intercept marks, as well as take kick-ins when he was designated to them, leading to four scores over 120 last season. Often when Essendon key defensive stocks dwindled or struggled in matches, Ridley was forced into covering a key defensive post, in turn resulting in less intercept opportunity and freedom across half-back. His kick-in duties were also capped as Mason Redman grew into his rebounding half back position. With the arrival of Ben McKay to the Bombers, Ridley could return to his former glory as an interceptor, but he should still be capped on the number of kick-ins he gets.
6. Hayden Young (Pred Avg. 105-110)
Fremantle coach, Justin Longmuir, made an inspired decision to add Hayden Young into his midfield rotation late last season. This resulted in four consecutive 100+ scores from rounds 21-24, including a 123, 118, 113 and 111. Longmuir credited Young in a press conference recently, saying "(Hayden) gave us another bigger body, which complemented the other mids." Young has always shown plenty of talent at AFL level, especially in defence where he gained a 22under22 selection, highlighting the pick no.7 as a future gun. If Young can keep that form up and produce similar numbers to his last four games of 2023, I see no reason why he can't approach a 110 SC average.
7. Luke Ryan (Pred Avg. 105)
Luke Ryan enjoyed a great 2023 SuperCoach year that saw him rebound back up the ranks amongst defenders. Compiling an average of 109.5 SC across all 23 matches of the regular season, Ryan saw the benefits of a struggling Fremantle team. The Dockers were playing an odd defensive style of play during the beginning of 2023, resulting in a substantial amount of cheap kicks and marks across their defence. This heightened Ryan's scoring power to produce seven 100+ scores in the first eight rounds, before breaching the 100 mark only seven times for the rest of the season. While Fremantle are shifting the likes of Young and Chapman out of defence, I still struggle to see Ryan reaching last seasons numbers if the Dockers return to anything like they were in 2022.
8. Dan Houston (Pred Avg. 100-105)
The Power's clutch man cracked into the top six defenders for the first time in 2023, with a career best average of 106.1 SC. These numbers still came in a mixed fashion, with an occasional brilliant score and sub-80 score thrown in. This largely comes down to Houston's role and how it can be altered under Ken Hinkley, as he can switch between wing and half-back. Houston's two biggest scores (156 and 176) came when he lined up at centre-half-back, as oppose to his standout score of 47 on a wing. While Houston has shown a steady improvement on his SC average each season, his volatility is what keeps him away from the best defenders for me.
9. Jayden Short (Pred Avg. 100-105)
Jayden Short has been a streaky pick in the past, when playing in the right role across half-back. In recent times he has played largely in the midfield for Richmond, putting a cap on his scoring and SC average. Short was still fairly impressive in this role last season, managing eight 100+ scores from 16 rounds played. The half-back position is where he shines the most, as he averaged 105.5 SC across a six round span (rounds 1-6) in 2022, with five of those scores being 100+. If Short can gain some consistency in this role under new coach Adem Yze, there is no reason why he can't challenge as a top 6-10 defender come seasons end.
Honourable mentions (Sheezel, Brayshaw, Newman)
There are still some names that missed my list and I do believe can be solid picks in the right circumstances, but recent changes to roles have influenced their omissions. Both Sheezel and Newman I hold questions over, due to the additions of new/returning defenders to their clubs best 23. For example, Williams returning from injury at Carlton and Fisher arriving at North Melbourne. Angus Brayshaw also has a questionable role as a defender or inside midfielder, as Clayton Oliver can return at any time and push Brayshaw back into defence.
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